Well after last weeks action, we could very well be in for some more upside next week:



As we mentioned before, we remain stuck in an up-trending channel that has been holding up for about a month now. Until it breaks, the bias is to the upside. The fact that we held 880 on the S&P is definitely bullish and it looks as though we could see a test of 950 from here.



Could we actually get a break above the 200-day? If the daily charts are any indicator, then odds are we might.



Gold is in the final stages of forming that inverse head and shoulders that we mentioned way back in February. If you don’t own any gold now, it’s definitely not too late to step in. We are looking for an immediate move in the GLD to $115 after that shoulder is broken.

Just keep in mind that this is purely a commodity driven rally and it can only be looked at as such.

Good luck.

Just a quick look at some charts tonight:



The S&P remains stuck in an uptrending channel that began in late March. Until we break the channel, we could see more upside here.



The Gold miners ETF broke out of that inverted head and shoulders last week on heavy volume. This chart could be a bit ahead of itself here, but its’s a definite buy on the pullbacks. You could have caught this trade with us on the Seeking Alpha tab.



Gold itself has also traded well over the past few weeks. Now that we’re back above the 50-day on heavier volume, this chart looks very bullish. There’s some definite resistance at $94.50, so a pullback/consolidation period here is expected. But from there, it looks like a very good trade to be long. Could we get another inverse head and shoulders on that 3-month chart? Only time will tell, but our guess is that we get something along those lines.



The refiners have also been very bullish lately. After breaking out of an ascending triangle on extremely heavy volume, we’ve seen a nice pullback to that resistance turned support area at around $13.4. This definitely looks like a good area to get long, as we’re at double support near this price level. We mentioned the refiners as very interesting looking long plays a few posts back, so hopefully some of you caught that with us.



TSO also looks great here. Notice the accumulation indicator on both of these charts, definitely bullish.

And that does it from here. Hope you all had a great Memorial Day.

Good luck.

Just a quick look at the S&P:



After a brief break above the channel a few weeks ago, we came back within the channel and are now presented with one of two scenarios that could occur. Should we stay within the channel, we would be looking for a retest of 930. A break below 880, though, would be pretty bearish and given the fact that the financials seem a bit toppy here, it might help to keep those stops tight.

Also, keep an eye on any of the gold/oil related stocks. They’re on fire.

Good luck.

Just a few charts for tonight:



The S&P continues to be in a downtrend from last week. As we’ve stated in earlier posts, the fundamentals have not improved enough to sustain this rally. The jobs data last week came in worse than expected, and we feel that this is a number that can only rise in the near-term, primarily because Chrysler just closed 789 dealerships and GM is in the process of closing down another 1,100 dealerships. This will no doubt influence the jobs data signifigantly in the coming months and while we could have another upleg before the final wave down, it might be a good idea to start re-evaluating long positions to the short side.



Gold continues to perfom very well and there is still room for an immediate move to about $92.15. From there we could see a bit of a pullback to the 50-day before moving higher again for a test of the highs.



A few posts back, we mentioned that the refiners were looking interesting. After breaking out of an inverse head and shoulders on the OIH, we saw a nice move to the 200-day, where we finally saw a bit of selling. An interesting trade on the long side would have us testing that $87.5 support level as well as that 50-day moving average. There are similar chart patterns among many of the individual refining stocks. TSO, WNR, HAL, and SLB all look bullish over the next month or so.

Good luck.

Does anyone else see the green shoots? Yeah, about that...

Thanks to Jalopnik for that.

Just a brief chart for tonight:



The S&P looks to have set a double top last week at around 930. From there, we broke the daily uptrend and continued lower, past support at 900, to our current position at 890. We will be keeping an eye on that downtrend for resistance, not to mention 900, which many traders are considering to be a key technical level. Anything above 900 and we could head higher. Anything below that 860 area, and we could see some heavier selling next week. In our view, we’ve had a massive run-up, and a pullback here is almost expected.

Let’s see what happens.

Future looks promising eh?

Well now that at least one of us is done with finals, we can actually start getting back to focusing on the market. Before we get into the charts, however, The Big Picture has a great article on how banks cut the requirements for the stress tests in half, meaning that at the end of the day, all these tests were just one big joke. Not that this was news to anyone, but it just goes to show how incompetent Geithner and the whole Obama team are.

Anyways, to the charts we go:



As we had mentioned in previous posts, the markets have been stuck in an up-trending channel for a little over a month now. That changed last week, though, as we actually broke through the upper trend-line to new highs. 950 looks to be the next target, and we could possibly be in for a move to 1000 as explained after the next chart.



Our own Elliott Wave Analysis of the S&P over the past two years shows that we are in the latter stages of the fourth wave, meaning that we are still due for a fifth and final wave down towards a target of around 600 on the S&P. Our first target is 950. Should we break that the way is clear for a move to 1000, as there is little or no resistance on the way up. The odds of this happening are slim in our opinion though. Regardless, the trade will most likely be to the short side for the remainder of the year.



Gold has been acting very well as of late. The downtrend that had been in place since last March looks as though it was broken last week. Also, we have just had a positive MACD crossover, which seems to point to more immediate upside within the next few weeks. As long as we can stay and hold above the 50-day moving average, Gold looks like a good trade to the upside here.



From a weekly chart, the picture for Gold looks just as bullish. The GLD looks to have found some credible support at the 50% retracement on the Fibonacci and that inverse head and shoulders remains in play.



Another sector where we might see some significant upside is in the gold miners. AUY seems to be in the process of also forming an inverse head and shoulders here on the weekly chart. A break of the neckline could see AUY trading at $15 relatively quickly.



ABX also looks great here. $40 looks like a good near term target. For those willing to hold longer, $50 doesn’t look all that far away. The whole sector looks similar to these charts. We just threw up the best looking ones.



And as a closer, we leave you with a chart of the dollar. This is a broken chart if we’ve ever seen one and what’s more is that the fundamentals certainly support the dollar trading lower from here. We have Obama flooding the market with dollars, not to mention a broken economy, trillions of dollars in debt, and the Chinese who are intent on backing a new international currency.

Sure does look like the long trade on the dollar is dead.

The following video is a skit from Saturday Night Live on Geithner’s bank stress tests:



It would be funny if it wasn’t true.

We apologize for the lack of updates recently, as we are both in the process of taking final exams and finishing up school for the semester. Look for a detailed market analysis Sunday night.