Rally Comes Out Of Nowhere, But The Trend Is Still Down
02/12/08 10:35 PM
Today was a very interesting day. Anyone that was following the daily charts will know what we’re talking about. The rally came at a point where nearly every daily indicator was pointing down. What can we expect going into tomorrow? Well, the rally today came on relatively decent volume. 850 continues to be an area of resistance and while we could test 900 tomorrow, the short-term trend is continues to be down and we would look to short any rallies like the one we saw today.
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Low Volume Rallies In Bear Markets Usually Don't Last
30/11/08 07:53 PM
There are only two charts we are looking at going into
the new week, the SPX and the XLF:
Last week’s 20% rally bottom to top really seems to be showing signs of some weakness here. The volume has all but dryed up (granted, it was a holiday) and we are coming close to being overbought. It might be a good idea to close any outstanding long positions.
The XLF continues to lead this market and unless something crazy happens, $13 will provide as firm resistance for the bulls. Similar to the S&P, the volume has been far from encouraging.
Last week’s 20% rally bottom to top really seems to be showing signs of some weakness here. The volume has all but dryed up (granted, it was a holiday) and we are coming close to being overbought. It might be a good idea to close any outstanding long positions.
The XLF continues to lead this market and unless something crazy happens, $13 will provide as firm resistance for the bulls. Similar to the S&P, the volume has been far from encouraging.
Market Analysis: Looking To The Week Ahead
23/11/08 04:20 PM
Recapping last week:
• Citi plans on cutting 52,000 more jobs on top of the 23,000 they have already cut this year.
• Target is halting its stock buyback program and plans on cutting prices into the holiday season.
• Oil continues to decline, trading below $50/barrel. Deutsche Bank stated that prices could fall as low as $30-35/ barrel.
• HP topped Q4 estimates and lifted its outlook for the year, but its outlook was still well below Wall Street’s expectations.
• Producer costs fell a record 2.8% in October.
• Online sales up only 1% for October.
• The homebuilders index for November sank 5 points to its current level of 9. Anything below 50 is considered negative.
• Home Depot beat estimates with Q3 EPS falling 24%
• Saks missed estimates as discount pricing affected their bottom line.
• October consumer prices fell 1%, the biggest monthly decline in 61 years.
• Housing starts came in at 791,000 homes for October, the slowest rate since 1959.
• Chemical maker BSAF plans on closing 80 plants and cutting 21% of its workforce, citing massive drops in demand.
• Dell topped views by six cents thanks to effective cost cutting and job cuts.
• Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac said they’re halting foreclosures on 16,000 households from November to January in order to determine if borrowers qualify for a loan modification plan set into effect last week.
• Congress decided against an immediate loan for the automakers.
Again, not really much new. The economy continues to struggle and the good news, if any, is few and far between.
Friday’s close was interesting to say the least. The volume certainly came in strong and the fact that we are overbought may lead us to a bit more upside. We would look at 850 as a possible area to initiate new short positions.
And for anyone that was watching Fast Money last Thursday, Peter Schiff came on the show to talk about where he sees the economy heading in the future. Very worth watching.
And based on gold’s bullish movement last week, he may have a point.
• Citi plans on cutting 52,000 more jobs on top of the 23,000 they have already cut this year.
• Target is halting its stock buyback program and plans on cutting prices into the holiday season.
• Oil continues to decline, trading below $50/barrel. Deutsche Bank stated that prices could fall as low as $30-35/ barrel.
• HP topped Q4 estimates and lifted its outlook for the year, but its outlook was still well below Wall Street’s expectations.
• Producer costs fell a record 2.8% in October.
• Online sales up only 1% for October.
• The homebuilders index for November sank 5 points to its current level of 9. Anything below 50 is considered negative.
• Home Depot beat estimates with Q3 EPS falling 24%
• Saks missed estimates as discount pricing affected their bottom line.
• October consumer prices fell 1%, the biggest monthly decline in 61 years.
• Housing starts came in at 791,000 homes for October, the slowest rate since 1959.
• Chemical maker BSAF plans on closing 80 plants and cutting 21% of its workforce, citing massive drops in demand.
• Dell topped views by six cents thanks to effective cost cutting and job cuts.
• Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac said they’re halting foreclosures on 16,000 households from November to January in order to determine if borrowers qualify for a loan modification plan set into effect last week.
• Congress decided against an immediate loan for the automakers.
Again, not really much new. The economy continues to struggle and the good news, if any, is few and far between.
Friday’s close was interesting to say the least. The volume certainly came in strong and the fact that we are overbought may lead us to a bit more upside. We would look at 850 as a possible area to initiate new short positions.
And for anyone that was watching Fast Money last Thursday, Peter Schiff came on the show to talk about where he sees the economy heading in the future. Very worth watching.
And based on gold’s bullish movement last week, he may have a point.